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Prisma WP6 NDC delay and SE tech from ref #2421
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| Original file line number | Diff line number | Diff line change |
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| title;start;copyConfigFrom;cm_targetDelay;cm_ReferenceCapacities;cm_LTSexcludeRegi;carbonprice;carbonpriceRegi;path_gdx;path_gdx_ref;path_gdx_bau;path_gdx_carbonprice;path_gdx_refpolicycost;cm_startyear;cm_multigasscen;description;CES_parameters;slurmConfig;regionmapping;extramappings_historic;cm_rcp_scen;subsidizeLearning;cm_prtpScen;capitalMarket;cm_iterative_target_adj;cm_budgetCO2from2020;cm_budgetCO2_absDevTol;cm_taxCO2_functionalForm;cm_taxCO2_startyear;cm_peakBudgYr;cm_taxCO2_regiDiff;cm_emiscen;c_regi_earlyreti_rate;c_NearTermProjectCompletion;cm_fetaxscen;cm_bioenergy_SustTax;cm_33EW;cm_33OAE;cm_33_OAE_limit_EEZ;cm_frac_NetNegEmi;c_ccsinjecratescen;c_ccscapratescen;cm_CESMkup_build;cm_wasteIncinerationCCSshare;techpol;regipol;cm_NucRegiPol;cm_CoalRegiPol;cm_altFeEmiFac;cm_GDPpopScen;cm_demScen;cm_oil_scen;cm_gas_scen;cm_coal_scen;c_techAssumptScen;cm_nucscen;cm_so2tax_scen;cm_LU_emi_scen;cm_tradecostBio;cm_maxProdBiolc;cm_1stgen_phaseout;c_SSP_forcing_adjust;cm_APssp;cm_CESMkup_ind;cm_EDGEtr_scen;c_changeProdCost | ||
| # H12 SSP2;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; | ||
| SSP2-NPi2025-calibrate;calibrate,AMT,compileInTests,calibrateSSP2;;;;;;;;;;;;2005;;SSP2-NPi2025-calibrate: This reference policy/baseline scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road.;calibrate;14;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; | ||
| SSP2-NDC-LTS;1,AMT,2;;;;;NDC;netZero;;SSP2-NPi2025;SSP2-NPi2025;;SSP2-NPi2025;2030;2;SSP2-NDC-LTS: Long-term-strategy, this scenario follows the NDCs until 2035 and starts rescaling the carbon prices from 2040 to reach national net-zero pledges.;;;;;;globallyOptimal;;;3;;;;;;;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;transformative;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Mix4ICEban;1 | ||
| SSP2-NDC;1,AMT,2;;;;;NDC;;;SSP2-NPi2025;SSP2-NPi2025;;SSP2-NPi2025;2030;;SSP2-NDC: This Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. It assumes NPi2025 until 2025 and has start year 2030. The NDC includes all pledged policies even if not yet implemented. It assumes that the moderate and heterogeneous climate ambition reflected in the NDCs at the begining of 2021 continues over the 21st century.;;;;;;globallyOptimal;;;3;;;;;;;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;transformative;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Mix3ICEban;1 | ||
| SSP2-NPi;1,AMT,2;;;;;NPi;;;;;;;2005;;SSP2-NPi: This National Policies Implemented (NPi) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The NPi assumes that policies fail to achieve NDC targets in 2030. Instead, carbon prices are assumed to grow and converge more slowly, leading to emissions trajectories in line with bottom-up studies on the effect of currently implemented policies.;;;;;;;;;0;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;NPi2018;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Mix1; | ||
| SSP2-NPi2025;1,AMT,compileInTests,2;;;;;;;;;;;;2005;;SSP2-NPi2025: This National Policies Implemented (NPi) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The NPi reflects currently implemented policies, while fulfilling near-term feasibility and long-term plausibility assessments. Emissions trajectories are aligned with bottom-up studies on the effect of currently implemented policies. Carbon prices are constant in the mid- and long-term.;;;;;;;;;0;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; | ||
| SSP2-PkBudg650;1,AMT,2;;;;;functionalForm;;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP2-NPi2025;2030;2;SSP2-PkBudg650: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 650 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a 1.5C scenario, peak warming is allowed to be at or slightly above 1.5C at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 1.5C in at least 67 % of scenarios by the end of the century.;;;;;rcp20;globallyOptimal;;;9;650;;;100;2055;6;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;transformative;;;;;;;;;;2050.GLO 0.9;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Elec_Push;Mix4ICEban;1 | ||
| SSP2-PkBudg750;1,AMT,2;;;;;functionalForm;;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP2-NPi2025;2030;2;SSP2-PkBudg750: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 750 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a 1.5C scenario, peak warming is allowed to be at or slightly above 1.5C at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 1.5C in at least 67 % of scenarios by the end of the century.;;;;;rcp20;globallyOptimal;;;9;750;;;100;2055;6;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;transformative;;;;;;;;;;2050.GLO 0.9;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Elec_Push;Mix4ICEban;1 | ||
| SSP2-PkBudg750_wo100EJBiobound;1,AMT,2;;;;;functionalForm;;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP2-NPi2025;2030;2;SSP2-PkBudg750_wo100EJBiobound: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 750 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a 1.5C scenario, peak warming is allowed to be at or slightly above 1.5C at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 1.5C in at least 67 % of scenarios by the end of the century.;;;;;rcp20;globallyOptimal;;;9;750;;;100;2055;6;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;transformative;;;;;;;;;;2050.GLO 0.9;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;off;;;;Elec_Push;Mix4ICEban;1 | ||
| SSP2-PkBudg1000;1,AMT,2;;;;;functionalForm;;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP2-NPi2025;2030;2;SSP2-PkBudg1050: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 1150 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a well below 2C scenario at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 2C in at least 67 % of scenarios during the whole century.;;;;;rcp26;globallyOptimal;;;9;1000;;;75;2080;7;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;transformative;;;;;;;;;;2050.GLO 0.5;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Mix3ICEban;1 | ||
| SSP2-EcBudg500;1,AMT,2;;;;;functionalForm;;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP2-NPi2025;2035;2;SSP2-EcBudg400: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes an end-of-century budget of 400 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2020 to 2100. This is a high overshoot scenario with delayed climate policy.;;;;;rcp26;globallyOptimal;;;5;500;5;exponential;70;;7;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;transformative;;;1;1;5000;0;;;;2060.GLO 0.9;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;200;;;;;Mix3ICEban;1 | ||
| SSP2-rollBack;1,AMT,2;;;;;none;;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP2-NPi2025;2030;;SSP2-rollBack: This rollback of climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 called Middle of the Road.;;;;;;;;;0;;;;;;;0;;;1;;;;;;;;;;none;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Mix1;1 | ||
| SSP2-MeetAspirations;;SSP2-NDC-LTS;;;off;;;;SSP2-NPi2025;SSP2-NPi2025;;SSP2-NPi2025;2030;2;All countries implement current policies, NDCs (2030/2035), and Long-Term Strategies (LTS). Climate ambition follows stated national commitments, with carbon prices reflecting near-term policies and gradually increasing mitigation incentives.;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; | ||
| SSP2-AsymmetricRoll-Back;;SSP2-NDC-LTS;prisma;;off;;;SSP2-MeetAspirations;SSP2-NPi2025;SSP2-NPi2025;;SSP2-NPi2025;2030;2;Climate ambition is rolled back across all countries in differentiated ways. NDC and LTS milestones are delayed by 10 years for transition leaders, 20 for diversifying economies, and by 30 for fossil-dependent economies and net-zero ambitions are weakened.;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Mix3ICEban; | ||
| SSP2-LateReawakening;;SSP2-NDC-LTS;;;off;;;SSP2-MeetAspirations;SSP2-AsymmetricRoll-Back;SSP2-NPi2025;;SSP2-NPi2025;2040;2;Countries initially follow the rollback pathway, then resume LTS targets after a delay (around 2035–2040). Regions attempt to return to original climate objectives, requiring accelerated mitigation and possible adjustment of targets for feasibility.;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; | ||
| SSP2-StayingAlive;1;;;prisma_SA;;exogenous;;;SSP2-MeetAspirations;;SSP2-AsymmetricRoll-Back;;2030;2;Same policy ambition as the rollback scenario, but investments in renewables, electricity storage, grid expansion, and end-use electrification remain at levels of the ambition scenario to test low-regret transition strategies.;;;;;;;;;0;;;;;;;9;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;transformative;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Mix4ICEban;1 |
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| title;start;copyConfigFrom;continueFromHere;magpieIter;config/scenario_config.csv;no_ghgprices_land_until;cfg_mag$gms$s15_elastic_demand;cfg_mag$gms$s29_treecover_scenario_start;cfg_mag$gms$s29_treecover_scenario_target;cfg_mag$gms$s29_treecover_target;cfg_mag$gms$s59_scm_scenario_start;cfg_mag$gms$s59_scm_scenario_target;cfg_mag$gms$s59_scm_target;cfg_mag$gms$c60_1stgen_biodem;cfg_mag$gms$s56_limit_ch4_n2o_price;cfg_mag$gms$c15_food_scenario;cfg_mag$gms$s44_bii_target;cfg_mag$gms$c44_bii_decrease;cfg_mag$gms$s44_start_year;cfg_mag$gms$s56_fader_cpriceaff_start;cfg_mag$gms$s56_fader_cpriceaff_end | ||
| SSP2-EcBudg500;1;;;;SSP2|NDC|AR-plant|nocc_hist;y2030;1;2050;2070;0.02;2050;2070;0.2;const2030;734;;0;0;2050;2040;2050 | ||
| SSP2-NDC;1;;;;SSP2|NDC|AR-natveg|nocc_hist|rcp4p5;y2150;1;;;0;;;0;const2030;734;;0;1;2030;2030;2030 | ||
| SSP2-NDC-LTS;1;;;;SSP2|NDC|AR-natveg|nocc_hist|rcp4p5;y2030;1;;;0;;;0;const2030;734;;0;1;2030;2030;2030 | ||
| SSP2-NPi;0;;;;SSP2|NPI|AR-natveg|nocc_hist;y2150;1;;;0;;;0;const2030;734;;0;1;2030;2030;2030 | ||
| SSP2-NPi2025;1;;;;SSP2|NPI|AR-natveg|nocc_hist|rcp4p5;y2150;1;;;0;;;0;const2030;734;;0;1;2030;2030;2030 | ||
| SSP2-PkBudg1000;1;;;;SSP2|NDC|AR-natveg|nocc_hist|rcp2p6;y2030;1;;;0.01;;;0.1;const2030;734;;0;0;2030;2030;2030 | ||
| SSP2-PkBudg750;1;;;;SSP2|NDC|AR-natveg|nocc_hist|rcp1p9;y2030;1;;;0.03;;;0.3;const2030;734;;0;0;2030;2030;2030 | ||
| SSP2-rollBack;0;;;;SSP2|NPI-revert|AR-natveg|nocc_hist;y2150;1;;;0;;;0;const2030;734;;0;1;2030;2030;2030 | ||
| SSP2-MeetAspirations;;SSP2-NDC-LTS;;;SSP2|NDC|AR-natveg|nocc_hist|rcp4p5;y2030;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; | ||
| SSP2-AsymmetricRoll-Back;;SSP2-NDC-LTS;;;SSP2|NDC-delay|AR-natveg|rcp4p5;y2045;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; | ||
| SSP2-LateReawakening;;SSP2-NDC-LTS;;;SSP2|NDC-delay|AR-natveg|rcp4p5;y2040;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; | ||
| SSP2-StayingAlive;;SSP2-NDC-LTS;;;SSP2|NDC-delay|AR-natveg|rcp4p5;y2045;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; |
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@@ -55,6 +55,20 @@ p45_factorRescaleCO2TaxLtd_iter(iteration,t,regi) = p45_factorRescaleCO2TaxLtd(t | |||||||
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| display p45_factorRescaleCO2TaxLtd_iter; | ||||||||
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| $ifThen "%cm_targetDelay%" == "prisma" | ||||||||
| pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi)$( t.val < 2040 ) = min( pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi), | ||||||||
| p45_CO2PriceLimitNDC(t,regi) * sm_DptCO2_2_TDpGtC); | ||||||||
| $ifThen.cm_NDC_CO2PriceLimit_continuation not "%cm_NDC_CO2PriceLimit_continuation%" == "off" | ||||||||
| *** For the periods after the carbon price limit: | ||||||||
| *** If this switch is on, limit increase by 20%/yr, but ensure the CO2 price limit (cap) is at least 200$/tCO2. | ||||||||
| pm_taxCO2eq("2035",regi) = min( pm_taxCO2eq("2035",regi), | ||||||||
| max( p45_CO2PriceLimitNDC("2030",regi) * (1 + 0.2 * (2035 - 2030)) * sm_DptCO2_2_TDpGtC, | ||||||||
| 200 * sm_DptCO2_2_TDpGtC | ||||||||
| ) | ||||||||
| ); | ||||||||
| $endif.cm_NDC_CO2PriceLimit_continuation | ||||||||
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| $else | ||||||||
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| $ifThen.cm_NDC_CO2PriceLimit not "%cm_NDC_CO2PriceLimit%" == "off" | ||||||||
| *** limit CO2 prices in NDC realization according to switch cm_NDC_CO2PriceLimit | ||||||||
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@@ -72,10 +86,17 @@ $ifThen.cm_NDC_CO2PriceLimit_continuation not "%cm_NDC_CO2PriceLimit_continuatio | |||||||
| $endif.cm_NDC_CO2PriceLimit_continuation | ||||||||
| ); | ||||||||
| $endif.cm_NDC_CO2PriceLimit | ||||||||
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| $endif | ||||||||
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Contributor
There was a problem hiding this comment. Choose a reason for hiding this commentThe reason will be displayed to describe this comment to others. Learn more. (I did not verify the calculation.) |
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| *** calculate tax path until NDC target year - linear increase | ||||||||
| $ifThen "%cm_targetDelay%" == "prisma" | ||||||||
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Contributor
There was a problem hiding this comment. Choose a reason for hiding this commentThe reason will be displayed to describe this comment to others. Learn more. Just to confirm. imagining region XXX has a 2030 NDC pushed to 2050:
If yes, we could replace the whole $ifThen block by: (because |
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| p45_taxCO2eqFirstNDCyear(regi) = smax(t$(t.val = p45_firstNDCyear(regi)), pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi)); | ||||||||
| pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi)$(t.val > 2031 AND t.val < p45_firstNDCyear(regi)) = (p45_taxCO2eqFirstNDCyear(regi) - pm_taxCO2eq("2035",regi))*(t.val-2035)/(p45_firstNDCyear(regi)-2035) + pm_taxCO2eq("2035",regi); | ||||||||
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Contributor
There was a problem hiding this comment. Choose a reason for hiding this commentThe reason will be displayed to describe this comment to others. Learn more. To save us having to check that the linear interpolation is correct, we could use
Suggested change
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| $else | ||||||||
| p45_taxCO2eqFirstNDCyear(regi) = smax(t$(t.val = p45_firstNDCyear(regi)), pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi)); | ||||||||
| pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi)$(t.val > 2021 AND t.val < p45_firstNDCyear(regi)) = (p45_taxCO2eqFirstNDCyear(regi) - pm_taxCO2eq("2020",regi))*(t.val-2020)/(p45_firstNDCyear(regi)-2020) + pm_taxCO2eq("2020",regi); | ||||||||
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Contributor
There was a problem hiding this comment. Choose a reason for hiding this commentThe reason will be displayed to describe this comment to others. Learn more. Here we could use
Suggested change
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| $endif | ||||||||
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| *** replace taxCO2eq between NDC targets such that taxCO2eq between goals does not decrease | ||||||||
| loop( p45_NDCyearSet(t2,regi) , | ||||||||
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Does it have to follow the ref throughout the whole time span, or just until 2035?
If it is indeed [2030-2100], then we can remove the condition and use set
t(This set includes only the active modeled years, which are the years from ttot greater than or equal to the model run year defined in cm_startyear.)teVREalso contains the relevant techs.